光大期货：12月26日有色金属日报

Copper - The domestic copper futures rose by 2.51% to 97,680 CNY/ton, reaching a historical high [2][7] - Japan plans to introduce its largest initial budget in fiscal 2026, totaling approximately 122.3 trillion JPY, a 6.3% increase from fiscal 2025, significantly exceeding current inflation levels [2][7] - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.0 mark, while the onshore RMB surpassed 7.01, both reaching new highs since September 2024 [2][7] - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons [2][7] - Demand for copper remains cautious as downstream enterprises focus on essential purchases, with expectations of a recovery in global economic growth next year [2][7] - Low inventory and resilient demand provide support, but high prices may suppress some physical buying, and the market may enter a phase of inventory accumulation as the year-end approaches [2][7] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.13% to 15,660 USD/ton, while domestic nickel increased by 1.35% to 126,800 CNY/ton [3][7] - SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 601 tons to 37,827 tons [3][7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association indicated a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026, down to approximately 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [3][7] - The domestic social inventory of nickel showed slight accumulation, while LME inventory decreased [3][7] - The market sentiment is positive, but actual implementation of news remains uncertain [3][7] Aluminum & Related Products - The price of alumina fluctuated weakly, settling at 2,635 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.38% [4][8] - Domestic aluminum futures showed a strong trend, with prices reaching 22,305 CNY/ton, up by 0.61% [4][8] - The aluminum ingot price in Foshan fell to 21,880 CNY/ton, with a widening spot discount [4][8] - Increased shipments from several mines and the resumption of large-scale mining operations provide support for future ore arrivals [4][8] - The aluminum market may face inventory accumulation pressure as macroeconomic sentiment stabilizes [4][8] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,835 CNY/ton, up by 0.28% [4][10] - Polysilicon prices fluctuated, with the main contract at 60,760 CNY/ton, rising by 4.8% [4][10] - Expectations of further environmental production cuts in the Northwest may support industrial silicon prices [4][10] - The market for photovoltaic materials is experiencing upward price adjustments due to rising silver prices [4][10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 0.44% to 123,520 CNY/ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 3,400 CNY/ton to 104,900 CNY/ton [5][11] - Supply-side production increased by 116 tons to 22,161 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 60 tons [5][11] - Weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons to 109,773 tons, with downstream inventory dropping by 239 tons [5][11] - Market sentiment improved, but pricing mechanisms and transmission pressures remain a concern for some enterprises [5][11]