复盘2025！公募REITs震荡中突显韧性，2026年配置瞄准景气赛道与超跌机会

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market in China is expected to experience rapid growth in 2025, with nearly 80 products issued and a total market value exceeding 220 billion yuan, potentially driving over 1 trillion yuan in new project investments [1][12]. Market Performance - The secondary market for public REITs showed a "rise then fall" pattern in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 14.2% in the first half, followed by a noticeable decline in the second half due to rising long-term interest rates and unlocking pressures [1][10]. - By December 10, 2025, 61 out of 77 listed REITs had increased in value, representing nearly 80% of the total, while 16 experienced declines [2][13]. Notable Products - The top-performing public REITs included: - E Fund Huawai Market REIT, which rose by 73.31% since its launch in January 2025 [3][18]. - Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT, which increased by 66.81% [3][18]. - Consumer REITs dominated the performance rankings, with four out of the top ten and eight out of the top twenty products being consumer-related [4][18]. Underperforming Products - The worst-performing REITs included: - Zhongjin Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT, which fell by 22.57% [5][19]. - E Fund Guangkai Chanyuan REIT, which decreased by 17.11% [5][19]. - A significant number of underperforming products were from the industrial park category, indicating pressure on this asset type [6][20]. Future Outlook for 2026 - Experts predict a dual enhancement in scale and quality for the public REITs market in 2026, with expectations of stable interest rates and a gradual improvement in overall market conditions [7][21]. - The market is seen as being in a "dual window period" of policy benefits and rapid demand growth, with a focus on expanding asset coverage and mature fundraising mechanisms [8][21]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on assets with stable cash flows and strong demand, particularly in sectors supported by clear policy backing [22][23]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of "good assets, good management, and good future" in evaluating investment opportunities [24].