2026年宏观前瞻：“十五五”开局下的经济韧性与机会

Economic Outlook - The overall macroeconomic pressure to achieve a real growth rate of around 5% in 2026 is relatively low, with optimism in the market regarding the economic fundamentals [1][2][3] - Inflation pressure is expected to be limited, with CPI likely peaking around 1% in mid-2026, and PPI's decline expected to narrow throughout the year [1][3] Sector Analysis - Infrastructure is projected to show a high-to-low growth trajectory, maintaining a growth rate of around 6.5%, with debt reduction remaining a core fiscal task [1] - The manufacturing sector is expected to accelerate in high-end, intelligent, and green production, with investment growth projected at around 8% due to policy support and export benefits [1] - The negative impact of the real estate sector on the economy is gradually decreasing, with a slight decline in sales and a moderate narrowing of investment drop [1] - Consumption is anticipated to benefit from policy support and improved confidence, with retail sales growth expected at around 4% [1] - Exports are expected to be a highlight of the economy, with growth projected at around 4.3% amid a mild recovery in global trade [1] Market Implications - The bond market may face temporary pressure if the macroeconomic narrative becomes more optimistic, but it is expected to remain friendly overall, with a return to a market style that correlates with economic fundamentals [4] - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) is highlighted for its core value, aligning with banks' needs and providing opportunities for capturing returns in a low-interest environment [4]