不锈钢：盘面窄幅震荡 强预期和弱现实博弈

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed situation with supply pressures easing slightly, while demand remains weak, leading to a general expectation of price fluctuations in the short term [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons, representing a decline of 1.6%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December crude steel production is projected at 3.2258 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.29%, with the 300 series at 1.7147 million tons, down 4.4% month-on-month and 7.6% year-on-year [2] - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, but year-end maintenance is increasing, and some companies may schedule early annual maintenance due to profit pressures [2] Inventory - The overall pace of inventory reduction is accelerating, but high inventory levels remain a significant concern, with warehouse receipts continuing to trend downward [2] - As of December 26, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 477,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7,000 tons [2] - On December 25, stainless steel futures inventory stood at 47,580 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,275 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market showed narrow fluctuations, with a cooling inquiry atmosphere and increased discounting by merchants, but overall trading sentiment remains subdued [3] - Macro factors include the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and the domestic central bank's liquidity injections, which have made statements to stabilize growth and promote consumption [3] - Nickel ore supply is tightening due to seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines, and domestic nickel ore prices are expected to decline [3] - Nickel iron prices are supported at around 920 yuan per nickel (tax included), while ferrochrome prices remain stable with factories focusing on order fulfillment [3] Short-term Outlook - The short-term market sentiment for stainless steel is expected to improve slightly, but the fundamental supply-demand dynamics continue to create uncertainty, with price fluctuations anticipated in the range of 12,500 to 13,200 yuan [4]