2026热卷展望：微利时代的到来，应对产能过剩与成本下行的双重挑战

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to see a significant increase in hot-rolled coil production capacity in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 122.5%, leading to intensified market competition [3][16]. Production Capacity - In 2025, the net new capacity for hot-rolled coils was 8 million tons, with a record monthly production of 29.4362 million tons in October 2025 [3][16]. - The total new capacity expected for 2026 is 17.8 million tons, marking the third peak in rapid capacity growth since 2021, following peaks of 22.4 million tons in 2022 and 20.1 million tons in 2024 [3][16]. - The new production lines will primarily focus on widths above 1700mm, catering to construction and shipbuilding, while narrower lines will supply materials for galvanizing and pipes [3][16]. Production and Utilization Rates - The capacity utilization rate for hot-rolled coils reached 90.29% in 2025, a 2.78 percentage point increase, the highest level in five years [5][18]. - Monthly production is expected to continue rising in 2026, influenced by maintenance and production restrictions, with significant fluctuations based on profit changes [5][18]. Cost and Price Dynamics - Iron ore prices are projected to decline, with an average price drop of approximately 39.42 yuan per ton compared to 2025, leading to reduced cost support for hot-rolled coil prices [7][20]. - The average monthly price for iron ore in 2026 is expected to fluctuate between 1280-1480 yuan per ton, with the highest point anticipated in October and the lowest in July [7][20]. - The estimated cost of producing hot-rolled coils is around 2967 yuan per ton, with variations based on price fluctuations [8][21]. Export and Domestic Demand - Hot-rolled coil exports are likely to decrease in 2025, with a current shortfall of 9.1732 million tons compared to the previous year, and monthly exports falling below 2 million tons [9][22]. - Domestic demand for hot-rolled coils is expected to increase slightly in 2026, with total consumption projected at 31.62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.38% [10][23]. - The demand from key downstream sectors such as cold-rolled, machinery, and construction is anticipated to grow, despite some declines in specific areas like container and shipbuilding [10][11][23]. Price Trends - The price of hot-rolled coils is expected to fluctuate between 3150-3450 yuan per ton in 2026, with a downward shift in the price center compared to 2025 [13][24]. - The overall market dynamics indicate a potential for increased supply and steady demand, leading to price pressures [13][24].