华泰期货：交易规则调整，碳酸锂价格宽幅震荡

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, prompting regulatory adjustments in trading rules to manage volatility [2][7]. Market Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 118,740 CNY/ton and closed at 123,520 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 0.44% from the previous settlement price [2][7]. - The trading volume for the day was 924,823 contracts, with an open interest of 607,187 contracts, down from 647,366 contracts the previous day [2][7]. - Starting December 26, 2025, the exchange will adjust trading rules for 12 lithium carbonate contracts, including minimum order sizes and daily opening limits [2][7]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 97,800 and 112,000 CNY/ton, with an increase of 3,400 CNY/ton from the previous day [3][8]. - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 97,500 and 107,000 CNY/ton, also reflecting a 3,400 CNY/ton increase [3][8]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate remains unchanged at 1,450 USD/ton [3][8]. - Market activity shows that most upstream lithium salt manufacturers are focusing on long-term contracts, with limited spot transactions [3][8]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Current inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons from the previous period [3][8]. - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons [3][8]. - Other inventory has increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [3][8]. - The overall trend indicates a continued reduction in inventory, although the pace of depletion is slowing [3][8]. Price Trends and Strategy - Current prices are heavily influenced by supply-side disruptions, with signs of excessive speculation in the market [4][9]. - The market is experiencing a divergence between futures and spot prices, indicating potential for a price correction [4][9]. - A short-term trading strategy is recommended, focusing on monitoring consumption and inventory trends, with opportunities to sell high for hedging [4][9].