万联证券：26年零售业消费分级时代开启 情绪消费带动潮玩、黄金珠宝与国货美妆产业新机遇

Core Viewpoint - China's consumption is transitioning into a new phase of "consumption stratification," characterized by a pursuit of cost-effectiveness for mass-market products while consumers are willing to pay a premium for innovative products and services that provide emotional value [1][2] Group 1: Consumption Stratification - The current consumption landscape in China has shifted from "consumption upgrading" to "consumption stratification," where consumers are more rational and seek cost-effectiveness for traditional, low-tech, and highly homogeneous products [2] - Emotional consumption is on the rise, driven by fast-paced lifestyles and information overload, leading to increased interest in sectors such as trendy toys, traditional gold, and beauty skincare [2] Group 2: Trendy Toys Market - The trendy toy market in China is rapidly expanding, with market size projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 35.11% [3] - The market is currently fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 20.8% market share in 2024, indicating potential for leading companies with comprehensive supply chains and strong IP resources to strengthen their market positions [3] Group 3: Gold and Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from channel-driven growth to product-driven strategies, with some companies achieving rapid growth through superior craftsmanship and marketing despite a slowdown in store expansion due to rising gold prices [4] - The demand for gold jewelry is expected to increase as craftsmanship improves and the "self-indulgence" consumption trend gains traction, particularly in non-wedding scenarios [4] Group 4: Cosmetics Industry - The domestic cosmetics market is showing a strong recovery, with local brands performing well during promotional events like "Double 11," driven by increased R&D investment and effective marketing strategies [5] - Young consumers are increasingly accepting domestic beauty brands, allowing these brands to capture market share from foreign competitors [5]