华泰期货：新疆种植面积预期调减，郑棉期价强势上涨

Market Overview - The cotton futures contract 2605 closed at 14,255 CNY/ton, an increase of 75 CNY/ton or 0.53% from the previous day [2][7] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,086 CNY/ton, up by 5 CNY/ton, while the national average price was 15,279 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton [2][7] Supply and Demand Analysis - The USDA made minor adjustments to global cotton supply and demand data, with a slight reduction in both production and consumption for the 2025/26 season, leading to a marginal increase in ending stocks [3][8] - U.S. cotton production has been slightly adjusted upwards, resulting in increased inventory pressure after two months of adjustments [3][8] - The northern hemisphere is experiencing a concentrated harvest of new cotton, creating temporary supply pressure, while global textile consumption remains weak [3][8] Domestic Market Insights - Domestic cotton production is expected to continue increasing in the 2025/26 season, with commercial inventories showing seasonal growth due to the ongoing harvest [3][8] - Despite the seasonal supply being ample, the sales pace in Xinjiang is accelerating, reducing hedging resistance in the market [3][8] - Demand remains weak with few new orders, but market sentiment is improving as the double festival approaches, leading to smoother sales of finished products [3][8] Strategic Outlook - The strategy is neutral to slightly bullish, as downstream capacity expansion is expected to increase domestic cotton consumption [4][9] - With low expectations for import volumes, the supply-demand balance for the new season is not anticipated to be overly loose, especially with increasing expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang for 2026 [4][9]