华泰期货：宏观环境催化频发 贵金属延续强势表现

Market Analysis - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the "7" threshold for the first time in 15 months, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB approached the same level, peaking at 7.0053 [2][14] - Geopolitical tensions are rising as Israeli officials signal potential military conflict with Iran, focusing on Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [2][14] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that the country is steadily approaching its 2% inflation target, with current real interest rates being very low, suggesting further rate hikes if economic conditions align with expectations [2][14] Futures Market and Trading Volume - On December 25, 2025, the main gold futures contract opened at 1013.94 CNY/g and closed at 1008.76 CNY/g, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 contracts [15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 17,630.00 CNY/kg and closed at 17,397.00 CNY/kg, down 1.20%, with a trading volume of 1,313,979 contracts [15] Bond Market Monitoring - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond remained unchanged at 4.136%, with the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds at 0.63%, also unchanged [16] Holdings and Trading Volume Changes - On December 25, 2025, the Au2602 contract saw a decrease of 4,521 long positions and a decrease of 92 short positions, while the total trading volume for gold contracts was 307,456, down 37.41% from the previous day [17] - In silver, the Ag2602 contract experienced a reduction of 15,678 long positions and 14,342 short positions, with a total trading volume of 3,355,499 contracts, an increase of 1.64% [17] ETF Holdings Tracking - Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.71 tons to 1,068.27 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 56 tons to 16,447 tons [18] Arbitrage Tracking - As of December 25, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -0.74 CNY/g, and for silver, it was -615.93 CNY/kg, with the gold-silver ratio at 57.98, a change of 0.63% from the previous day [19] Fundamental Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported gold trading volume of 28,920 kg, down 48.02%, and silver trading volume of 502,128 kg, down 50.32% [20] Investment Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish stance is suggested, with expectations of a strong demand leading to a price range of 980 CNY/g to 1,080 CNY/g for the Au2602 contract [21] - For silver, a neutral outlook is maintained, with the price expected to remain strong due to tight supply, suggesting a trading range of 17,500 CNY/kg to 18,600 CNY/kg for the Ag2602 contract [22]