狂飙破位 澳元创新高暗藏大机会

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened against the US dollar (USD), reaching a 14-month high, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy shift, rising commodity prices, and a weakening USD [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of December 26, 2025, the AUD/USD exchange rate is 0.6711, up 0.1343% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of over 7% [1]. - The AUD has broken through the 0.67 level, indicating a strong upward trend, with the potential to reach the 0.70 range if it maintains its position above recent highs [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The RBA has kept interest rates steady at 3.6% for three consecutive meetings, signaling an end to the rate-cutting cycle, with market expectations for a near 50% chance of a rate hike by March 2026 [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points this year, maintaining a dovish stance that diminishes the attractiveness of the USD [1][2]. Group 3: Commodity Influence - The AUD benefits from strong commodity prices, particularly gold and copper, with Australia's gold export expected to reach AUD 60 billion this fiscal year [1]. - Strong private consumption in Australia, with household spending rising 1.3% month-on-month in October, further supports the AUD's fundamentals [1]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The USD index has declined over 10% this year, with expectations of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while improved economic growth forecasts for China bolster AUD export prospects [2]. - Technical analysis indicates a clear upward trend for the AUD/USD, with resistance at 0.6717 and support at 0.6625 [2]. - Market focus will be on Australian inflation and labor data, RBA's rate hike pace for 2026, the Fed's rate cut trajectory, and commodity price trends [2].