瑞士经济韧性及美元弱势共振

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) due to diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside the CHF's safe-haven appeal and the resilience of the Swiss economy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third time this year by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, totaling a 75 basis point reduction, which diminishes the attractiveness of the USD [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintains its interest rate at 0%, with a high threshold for returning to negative rates, supporting the CHF [1] - The divergence in monetary policy, characterized by "Fed easing and Swiss stability," favors the CHF [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Swiss economy shows resilience, with third-quarter GDP contraction offset by growth in manufacturing and services, and the central bank projects GDP growth slightly below 1.5% for 2025 [1] - The US third-quarter GDP exceeded expectations but failed to reverse the USD's weakness, with the USD index falling to a three-month low [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Increased global geopolitical and trade uncertainties are attracting funds into the CHF, although excessive appreciation could lead to deflation and impact exports [2] - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with RSI entering oversold territory suggesting a potential short-term rebound, while MACD remains bearish [2] - Institutions have differing views on future trends, with Standard Chartered suggesting a potential short-term rebound for the USD, while UBS expects continued weakness until mid-2026 [2] Group 4: Future Focus - Key future considerations include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, signals from the Swiss National Bank, and global geopolitical risks [2] - Investors are advised to monitor Swiss inflation, Federal Reserve communications, and non-farm payroll data for risk management [2]