光伏，大消息！收储平台“两条腿走路”，全产业链下调开工率

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" by Guanghe Qiancheng is seen as a crucial step to address the "involution" and vicious competition within the photovoltaic industry, aiming for self-regulation and capacity adjustment by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Platform Establishment and Functionality - Guanghe Qiancheng's platform will operate on a "dual-track" model, involving "debt acquisition and flexible capacity storage," aiming to alleviate potential debts of hundreds of billions and restore the industry's financial health [2][3]. - The platform is expected to act more as a coordinator and information hub rather than a direct market player, reflecting a cautious balance between market intervention and avoiding excessive administrative control [2][3]. - The focus will shift from whether the platform is established to what specific actions it will take, with the urgency and efficiency of its actions being critical for addressing the underlying issues of overcapacity [2][3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic photovoltaic installation is projected to experience its first decline in new demand in years, with estimates suggesting a drop in new installations in 2026 [6][7]. - The current polysilicon capacity is around 3.5 million tons, with the platform aiming to reduce it to 1.5 million tons to align with market demand [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the market will face significant pressure in the first half of next year, with potential negative growth in new installations, reflecting a shift from rapid growth to stable growth in the photovoltaic sector [6][7]. Group 3: Cost and Pricing Challenges - The rising costs of raw materials, particularly silver paste and silicon, have increased production costs for photovoltaic components, leading to concerns about the industry's ability to pass on these costs effectively [8][9]. - The anticipated price recovery across the industry is expected to be gradual, with projections for polysilicon prices in 2026 ranging from 55,000 to 75,000 yuan per ton, and module prices between 0.88 and 0.99 yuan per watt [10]. - The industry is expected to undergo a restructuring process, with lower-tier companies maintaining low operational rates, which may lead to a gradual exit or reorganization of outdated capacities [10].