玄元投资2026年市场展望及投资策略：跃龙在渊 进无咎 重点关注的三大方向

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a position where it can either advance or retreat, with the emphasis on the need for economic fundamentals to improve for sustained growth [1][4]. Investment Framework and Style Tracking - The investment framework is based on the equation "Stock Price = EPS × PE," highlighting that valuation (PE) fluctuations are typically larger than earnings (EPS) changes in the A-share market [2][20]. - The market opportunities can be categorized into three styles: macro style, growth style, and thematic style, with macro style being influenced by the China-US interest rate differential [2][21]. Judgments for 2026 - The market is still in a bull phase, but the rhythm of growth will differ from the past, with the current A-share market capitalization to household savings ratio at approximately 0.65, indicating that the bull market is not over yet [7][25]. - The current market is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, but this type of market has a clear "ceiling," as seen in historical liquidity-driven markets [8][26]. - Economic fundamentals are expected to gradually improve in the second half of next year, which may trigger a style switch from growth and thematic to value and cyclical stocks [9][27]. - Bull markets may experience more severe pullbacks, with historical data showing that pullbacks in bull markets are typically around 10% at the index level, but certain broad indices may see declines exceeding 20% [9][28]. Key Areas for Fundamental Improvement - Exports have been growing, but the "price for volume" model is unsustainable, with China's export price index down approximately 20% compared to developed countries, which may suppress long-term profit margins [11][28]. - Fixed asset investment has seen a decline for the first time in 36 years, influenced by various factors including a significant drop in land revenue [11][28]. - The real estate market shows high inventory levels, particularly in second-tier cities, indicating a need for stronger demand-side policies [11][29]. - There is a shift towards service consumption, with a focus on sectors such as cultural tourism, elderly care, and emotional consumption [11][29]. Policy Perspective - The current policy focus includes addressing "involution" competition, promoting technological innovation, and expanding domestic demand, with expectations for substantial policy implementation around mid-next year [14][33]. - Historical patterns suggest that policy effects are gradual and may take time to manifest, as seen in past housing reform policies [12][31]. Style Switching Considerations - A sustainable style switch from growth and thematic to value requires solid fundamental data support, as historical trends indicate a strong correlation between total style relative returns and revenue growth rates [15][34]. - Short-term style switches may occur due to trading factors, but these are often less sustainable without fundamental backing [16][34]. Focus Areas for 2026 - Key investment opportunities will revolve around three main themes: addressing involution competition, fostering new productive forces, and expanding domestic demand, with a particular emphasis on service consumption [17][35][36].