Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-26 03:12Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a significant breakthrough, with the main contract rising over 8% to surpass 130,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high since November 2023 [1][8]. Market Performance - As of December 26, the main lithium carbonate contract has recorded six consecutive trading days of gains, with a year-to-date increase of 67.29%, making it one of the best-performing commodities in the market [2][10]. - The Wind lithium mining index rose by 3.24%, with leading stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie Co., and Tianqi Lithium Industries seeing gains of over 3% [3][10]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by expectations of supply contraction in the upstream of the industry chain [3][10]. - Major companies in the lithium iron phosphate sector, Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy, announced production cuts, with Youneng reducing production by 15,000 to 35,000 tons and Wanrun cutting 5,000 to 20,000 tons [4][10]. Regulatory Actions - In response to the rapid price increase, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange implemented measures to prevent excessive speculation, including increasing the minimum order size for certain contracts and setting daily opening limits for non-futures company members [5][11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the lithium carbonate market is characterized by a "strong reality and strong expectation resonance" but caution against short-term volatility risks [12]. - The overall price trend is expected to remain strong, with potential fluctuations due to production cuts and inventory adjustments, while the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to anticipated global energy storage demand in 2026 [6][12].