光伏收储平台"两条腿走路" 全产业链下调开工率

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" by Guanghe Qiancheng is seen as a crucial step to address the "involution" and fierce competition within the photovoltaic industry, with the aim of promoting self-regulation and stabilizing the market [1][2]. Group 1: Platform Establishment and Function - Guanghe Qiancheng's platform will operate on a "dual-track" model, involving "debt acquisition and flexible capacity storage," aiming to alleviate potential debts of hundreds of billions and restore the industry's financial health [2][3]. - The platform is designed to act as a coordinator and information hub rather than a direct market participant, reflecting a cautious balance between market intervention and avoiding excessive administrative control [2][3]. - The focus will shift from whether the platform is established to what specific actions it will take, with the urgency and efficiency of its actions being critical for addressing the underlying issues of overcapacity [2][3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Capacity Adjustments - The target for polysilicon capacity is set to be reduced to 1.5 million tons, aligning with market demand, as the current capacity is around 3.5 million tons [3][4]. - Investment institutions are expected to participate in the acquisition actions, with a proposed structure where enterprises contribute 30% and investment institutions 70% to leverage significant assets [3]. - The domestic photovoltaic market is projected to experience a decline in new installations for the first time, with estimates suggesting a drop in new installations ranging from 35% to 4% in 2026 under different scenarios [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from rapid growth to stable growth, with a need for horizontal collaboration and self-regulation to prevent excessive production [7]. - The industry faces uncertainty regarding the pass-through of rising costs along the supply chain, particularly as prices for key materials like silver paste and silicon rise [8][9]. - Predictions indicate that the overall photovoltaic industry chain may achieve profitability in 2026, contingent on effective capacity integration and market-driven price adjustments [10].