供应链锁死，皮革制品遭关税“精准阻击”明年美国涨价冲击将更明显？

Group 1 - The core impact of tariffs on leather products has led to significant price increases, with an estimated rise of nearly 22% over the next one to two years due to inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, and high tariffs, particularly affecting imports from China, Vietnam, Italy, and India [1][6] - Major companies like Tapestry, which owns brands such as Coach and Kate Spade, are facing substantial tariff-related costs, potentially reaching $160 million, and are warning of unexpected profit pressures [3][6] - The leather industry is heavily reliant on imports, with the U.S. importing $1.37 billion worth of leather apparel in 2023 while only exporting $92.7 million, resulting in a trade imbalance of approximately 15 to 1 [5][6] Group 2 - The global supply chain model, which previously reduced costs, is now becoming a liability due to new tariffs, as manufacturers like Twisted X struggle with increased production costs and longer delivery times from alternative sourcing countries [4][6] - The U.S. leather industry is experiencing a significant decline, with the number of tanneries dropping from about 1,000 in the 1950s to a projected 500 by 2025, leading to a workforce reduction from over 300,000 to around 50,000 [6][7] - The current shortage of raw materials, particularly due to a decrease in cattle numbers, is exacerbating the cost of leather production, as fewer cattle lead to higher prices for the remaining leather [8][9]