凯投宏观：日本经济在第三季度收缩后有望强劲反弹

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is expected to rebound strongly from the contraction experienced in the third quarter, according to a report by Capital Economics [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Abhijit Surya, a senior economist for the Asia-Pacific region, noted that despite a month-on-month decline in industrial output in November, businesses are more optimistic about the near-term outlook [1]. - Output is projected to grow by 1.2% in December and 1.8% in January, marking the strongest monthly growth expectations since the pandemic began [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Economic Performance - The significant decline in residential investment during the third quarter was largely driven by changes in building regulations, contributing to the economic contraction [1]. - However, as the real estate sector begins to recover, this decline in residential investment is expected to be temporary [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - Recent data is unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from continuing to tighten monetary policy in the coming months [1].