Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq 100 index has risen over 20% this year, with semiconductors and network infrastructure leading, while telecom and payment software lag behind. Looking ahead to 2026, the index is expected to show steady returns, particularly in the first half, due to AI spending concerns creating low expectation opportunities [1] Group 1: Key Issues Influencing Tech Stocks in 2026 - The debate on AI is shifting focus from computing power to physical AI (robotics, autonomous driving) and how regulation and return on invested capital (ROIC) will evolve [1] - Valuation recovery in the software industry will be influenced by the end of seat pricing models, the rise of intelligent agents, and competition in large language model (LLM) commercialization [1] - Apple's strategic positioning will be questioned: whether it will act as a defensive growth stock or an AI narrative vehicle, and if foldable smartphones can catalyze growth [1] - The supercycle in commodities, particularly in DRAM, memory chips, and precious metals like gold and copper, will raise questions about who can absorb cost pressures [1] - The paradox of generative AI efficiency, driven by layoffs enhancing productivity, may exacerbate non-farm employment data pressures [1] - Meta and similar companies will be seen as having the most investment value in the debate over profit margins and competition [1] - The potential for cyclical industries such as housing, commercial real estate, analog chips, or automotive sectors to hit bottom will be analyzed [1] - Conditions for hardware stocks to lead will depend on discussions around gross margins and visibility of spending potentially suppressing semiconductor market trends [1] - The development path of LLMs in the race for artificial general intelligence (AGI) will focus on whether US and Chinese models will move towards productization or primitive intelligence competition [1] - Potential blind spots include whether the return of agency businesses or SaaS stocks will become a consensus in 2026 [1]
高盛展望2026年美股科技股十大关键议题
Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-12-26 06:23