日本央行政策路径谨慎 2026年唱空日元的调门越来越高

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has not sustained a boost for the yen, leading to increasing bearish sentiment towards the currency and reinforcing the view that the yen's structural weakness will not be resolved quickly [1][5]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Strategists from institutions like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas predict that the yen will depreciate to 160 or lower against the dollar by the end of 2026, influenced by the large US-Japan interest rate differential, negative real interest rates, and ongoing capital outflows [1][5]. - JPMorgan's chief Japan FX strategist, Junya Tanase, forecasts a more pessimistic outlook, predicting the yen will reach 164 by the end of 2026, citing cyclical factors that may further pressure the yen [3][8]. - BNP Paribas' strategist, Parisha Saimbi, anticipates that the dollar will rise to 160 against the yen by the end of 2026, supported by strong arbitrage demand and a cautious stance from the Bank of Japan [4][9]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The yen has only appreciated less than 1% against the dollar this year, despite expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][5]. - The yen is currently fluctuating around 156, close to its yearly low of 158.87, indicating ongoing weakness [1]. - Japanese household investments in overseas assets remain high, with net purchases of foreign stocks hovering around 9.4 trillion yen (600 million USD), which is a ten-year high, contributing to downward pressure on the yen [4][9]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a notable trend of Japanese companies increasing their overseas direct investments, with this year's M&A activity reaching a multi-year high, which may be a persistent driver of capital outflows [7][11]. - The popularity of borrowing low-interest yen to invest in higher-yield currencies like the Brazilian real and Turkish lira is creating additional resistance to any potential rebound of the yen [3][8].