贺强：上市公司业绩不断增长是“十五五”时期股市走出长牛行情的首要条件

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a long-term bull market in China's stock market is highlighted, with emphasis on the importance of corporate earnings as a foundation for sustainable growth [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The longest bull market in A-shares lasted only two years, occurring in 2000, but the current environment may present new opportunities for a long bull market [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of capital markets, which is seen as crucial for the future of the stock market [1]. Group 2: Corporate Earnings - Continuous growth in corporate earnings is identified as the primary condition for a long bull market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. - Corporate earnings are deemed the cornerstone of the securities market, a principle that remains unchanged [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - If stock market increases are driven solely by speculation without corresponding growth in corporate earnings, the market is at risk of significant downturns once it reaches certain levels [4]. - A supportive relationship between stock price increases and corporate earnings growth is essential for a sustainable bull market [4][6]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis - The U.S. stock market has seen substantial growth from 2009 to 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing nearly fourfold, while average earnings per share have also increased significantly, leading to a decrease in the overall market P/E ratio [5]. - Recent corrections in U.S. tech stocks illustrate the volatility that can occur when valuations become excessive, yet the market has shown resilience and continued upward movement [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - For China to achieve a golden five years of slow and steady growth in the stock market, it is imperative that corporate earnings continue to rise, keeping the market P/E ratio at reasonable levels [6].