新世纪期货：美联储降息预期升温 金价稳涨逻辑延续

Macro Messages - The U.S. debt issue has led to cracks in the dollar's monetary credibility, highlighting gold's de-dollarization attributes amid the ongoing process of de-dollarization [1] - In a global high-interest rate environment, gold's role as a zero-yield asset has diminished, reducing its sensitivity to the actual interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Persistent geopolitical risks continue to drive market demand for safe-haven assets, significantly contributing to the short-term rise in gold prices [1] - There has been a notable increase in physical gold demand in China, with the central bank resuming gold purchases since November last year, marking eleven consecutive months of increases [1] Institutional Views - The logic driving the current rise in gold prices remains intact, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and risk aversion likely to be short-term disruptive factors [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to balance employment and inflation indicators, focusing more on job stability; it began a rate-cutting cycle in September, having cut rates three times this year [1] - Recent U.S. data shows mixed signals: November non-farm employment exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% [1] - The September PCE data indicates a decline in inflation, with core PCE year-on-year rising by 2.8%, below market expectations, while November CPI year-on-year increased by 2.7%, lower than expected and down from 3% in September [1] - In the short term, recent U.S. data has strengthened market expectations for rate cuts, with predictions of two rate cuts next year; the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and leadership transition are bullish for gold prices, supported by global central bank gold purchases and geopolitical conflicts [1]