【环球财经】拉美经济在风高浪急中前行

Economic Growth Outlook - The economic growth of Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to be 2.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, continuing a trend of low growth over the past four years [2] - Consumption, historically a major driver of economic growth in the region, is expected to decline in contribution due to weak external demand and slowing employment growth [2] - South America is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, primarily driven by Argentina, Bolivia, and Ecuador recovering from a contraction in 2024 [2] Regional Economic Performance - Central America and Mexico are forecasted to have a growth rate of only 1%, with Mexico's central bank lowering its growth forecast from 0.6% to 0.3% [2] - The Caribbean region is expected to grow by 5.5%, largely due to the rapid expansion of the oil industry in Guyana, while tourism remains a key growth driver for other Caribbean economies [3] External Pressures - The external environment is a significant constraint on Latin American economies, with the U.S. imposing tariffs that intertwine trade policies with immigration and security issues, impacting economic stability [4] - Mexico is particularly affected by U.S. tariffs, with a notable decline in industrial production and a forecasted economic performance that is "significantly below expectations" for Q3 2025 [4] - Brazil faces severe impacts from U.S. tariffs, with a projected GDP decline of approximately 0.2 percentage points and the loss of around 138,000 jobs in industrial and service sectors [4] Multilateral Cooperation - In response to external pressures, Latin American countries are accelerating multilateral cooperation, exemplified by a free trade agreement between the Southern Common Market and the European Free Trade Association [5] - This agreement aims to create a free trade area covering approximately 300 million people and an economic output exceeding $4.3 trillion, seen as a step to mitigate external risks [5] China-Latin America Trade Relations - China remains a crucial trade partner for Latin America, with expectations of a 5% increase in goods exports from the region in 2025, and a 7% increase in exports to China [6] - Brazil's exports to China have shown significant growth, with a 41% year-on-year increase in November 2025, despite challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [6] - New direct air routes between China and Argentina are expected to enhance trade efficiency, allowing for quicker delivery of products like cherries and salmon [6] Infrastructure and Investment - China and Latin American countries are advancing collaborative projects, including significant infrastructure developments like the solar power plant in Mexico and the bridge in Guyana, which are expected to boost trade and local economies [7] - The integration of Chinese electric vehicles into public transport systems in Brazil and Chile highlights the ongoing investment and technological collaboration between China and Latin America [7] Connectivity Improvements - The opening of the Chancay Port in Peru has rapidly enhanced its capacity and export functions, becoming the third-largest port in the country and facilitating smoother trade between Latin America and Asia [8]