纸浆盘面博弈较为激烈 当前估值整体偏高

News Summary Core Viewpoint - China's pulp import volume in November 2025 reached 3.246 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 24.0% and a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [1]. Import Data - The total cumulative import volume for the year reached 32.925 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1]. - As of December 25, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports was 1.906 million tons, which decreased by 87,000 tons from the previous period, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4.4% [1]. Futures Market Analysis - As of December 25, the top 20 futures companies held a total long position of 194,500 contracts and a total short position of 232,200 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.84. The net position was -37,700 contracts, an increase of 4,682 contracts compared to the previous day [1]. - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that recent price increases in external needle and broadleaf pulp have led to a focus on essential purchases by paper mills, with limited upward movement in raw paper prices [2]. - Galaxy Futures highlighted that current valuations are influenced by multiple factors, with pulp prices supported by futures funding and external price increases, but the core issue of oversupply remains unchanged. Weak terminal demand raises doubts about the sustainability of inventory reduction, and paper mills are cautious in procurement due to profit pressures, leading to an overall high valuation [3].