如何布局跨年行情？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market sentiment has recently improved, leading to increased discussions about the year-end market rally, with historical trends indicating a pattern of upward movement during this period since 2008 [1][13]. Market Trends - Historically, the A-share market has shown a "value-driven, growth-focused" characteristic during year-end rallies, with a balanced market style favoring large-cap, low-valuation, and cyclical stocks, influenced by expectations of stable growth policies [1][13]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, market liquidity is expected to remain ample, and risk appetite is likely to rise, shifting the market style towards small-cap and technology growth stocks [1][13]. Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions, including reduced overseas disturbances and increased global liquidity expectations, provide a solid foundation for the year-end rally, with the Central Economic Work Conference offering clearer guidance on economic and industrial development for the coming year [1][13]. - Investors are encouraged to consider a balanced investment portfolio that includes large-cap, small-cap, cyclical, and technology growth stocks, with the CSI A500 ETF (159338) being highlighted as a strong option [1][13]. CSI A500 ETF Insights - The CSI A500 ETF has seen significant inflows, with a total net inflow of 74.5 billion yuan and an average daily net inflow of nearly 5 billion yuan since December [1][13]. - The index's competitive edge lies in its rigorous selection mechanism and balanced constituent stock structure, which enhances its performance across structure, quality, and adaptability [2][16]. Index Structure and Methodology - The CSI A500 index features a balanced and forward-looking structure that aligns with economic transformation and the development of "new productive forces," covering all secondary industries and most tertiary industries [3][17]. - As of November 30, the average market capitalization of constituent stocks was 129.015 billion yuan, with 67.77% of the weight in companies with market caps exceeding 100 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity and quality [4][18]. Risk Management and Performance - The index covers 35 secondary industries and accounts for nearly 56% of the total market capitalization and 68% of net profit attributable to shareholders, showcasing its representation of the A-share market [6][18]. - The top ten constituent stocks account for only about 20% of the index, allowing for effective risk diversification and resilience against individual stock shocks [6][18]. Selection Criteria for A500 ETF - When selecting products tracking the CSI A500 index, investors should consider tracking error metrics, holder structure, and fund profitability to assess management capabilities and long-term stability [19][20]. Investment Strategies - The CSI A500 ETF is recommended for long-term core allocation, as it represents the overall trend of China's economic development and A-share market [21]. - Grid trading and dollar-cost averaging strategies are suggested for investors looking to manage market volatility and accumulate shares over time [22][23].