景顺长城张欢：2026年新消费投资 更需要在理性中寻找结构机会

Core Insights - The new consumption sector in 2025 has transitioned from "extreme enthusiasm" to "intense divergence," with pricing gradually returning to rationality [1][5] - Despite market fluctuations, demand for new consumption remains strong, leading to an optimistic outlook for the future [1][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new consumption market has experienced a "roller coaster" of emotions and pricing, shifting from extreme enthusiasm for innovative models to significant divergence, resulting in substantial valuation fluctuations [2][7] - The market is now reassessing the quality and quantity of growth, focusing on management capabilities and potential changes in competitive dynamics due to significant capital influx [2][7] - The consumption market exhibits a clear "K-shaped recovery," where high-net-worth individuals drive high-end consumption recovery, while middle and low-income groups face slower recovery due to employment and income expectations [2][7] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - 2025 is characterized as a year of full pricing for innovation in the new consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of supply-demand "innovation" [3][8] - Companies that can proactively innovate and adapt to changes will gain a competitive edge, particularly those enhancing consumer experiences through supply chain empowerment and emotional value satisfaction [3][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, attention should be paid to the "aftereffects" of high prosperity, as an increase in IPOs and active financing and mergers may lead to supply excess and intensified competition [4][9] - Three key areas to watch include: 1. Platform companies capable of navigating cycles, as single-brand models often face limitations [4][9] 2. Early participants in emerging trends, such as health-related products, which are expected to grow rapidly due to rising health awareness and social media-driven consumption [4][9] 3. Companies successfully expanding overseas, where manufacturing often scales more easily than branding, particularly in functional products [4][9] - The new consumption sector must continue to evolve, balancing innovation with an understanding of competitive dynamics and corporate capabilities [4][9]