Golden era: prices surge as rally heads towards US$5,000 in 2026, analysts forecast

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached record highs in 2025, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to US$5,000 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and central bank buying [1][4]. Price Movements - Spot gold surpassed US$4,500 per ounce for the first time, hitting a record US$4,510 on Christmas Eve, marking a 72% increase from US$2,624 at the end of the previous year [1]. - The annual increase in gold prices for 2025 is the largest since 1979, exceeding a 70% rise, following a 26% surge in 2024 [2]. Local Market Trends - In Hong Kong, gold prices reached a record HK$41,855 (approximately US$5,382) per tael (37.51 grams) [3]. Future Expectations - Analysts expect the gold rally to continue into 2026, with predictions of prices reaching US$5,000 per ounce [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to US$4,900 per ounce, while Morgan Stanley anticipates US$4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, and both Bank of America and JPMorgan expect prices to exceed US$5,000 by the end of 2026 [5]. Drivers of Demand - Central bank buying is identified as a significant driver of the gold price rally, as these institutions seek to diversify away from US dollar assets amid interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [4][6].