长江有色：26日镍价上涨 期货强势现货交投观望

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing upward momentum driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints, with a notable increase in both futures and spot prices observed recently [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - The Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract for January 2026 open at 125,790 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 127,980 CNY/ton and closing at 126,750 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 1,640 CNY/ton or 1.31% [1]. - The average price for 1 nickel on December 26 was reported at 130,900 CNY/ton, up by 3,600 CNY from the previous day, while the spot price averaged 131,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 4,250 CNY [1]. Group 2: Macro Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has weakened the US dollar, making nickel more attractive to global buyers and boosting its price [2]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector has improved, with strong performances in lithium and other energy metals contributing to a bullish atmosphere that supports nickel prices [2]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - A significant reduction in nickel supply is anticipated due to Indonesia's policy to cut nickel ore production by 34% by 2026, which is expected to tighten long-term supply [2]. - New regulations in Indonesia that impose separate taxation on cobalt may increase mining costs, further supporting nickel prices [2]. Group 4: Market Activity - The spot market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, where trading activity remains subdued despite slight improvements in sentiment, leading to a situation where high-priced resources are not being sold [3]. - Downstream enterprises are cautious, focusing on purchasing based on need and at lower price points, which has resulted in transactions primarily occurring in the mid to low price range [3]. Group 5: Short-term Outlook - The short-term rebound in nickel prices is likely to continue, although the upward potential may be limited, suggesting a strong but constrained market environment [4].