甲醇热点评论：甲醇还能上涨多少？

Core Viewpoint - The recent delays in unloading due to various factors have pushed back import pressures, leading to a significant increase in planned port arrivals. However, the driving force for methanol price increases is weak, and there is a risk of price correction in the short term. In the medium to long term, after mid-January, a decrease in methanol imports and the restart of Ningbo Fude are expected to gradually reduce port inventories, suggesting opportunities for low-cost buying of contracts [2][14]. Cost Side: Weak Expectations - Recent coal prices have continued to decline, with the Q5500 coal price dropping to 694 yuan/ton. As coal mines complete their annual production tasks, there is an expectation of reduced output. Demand is expected to weaken as the industrial sector approaches the New Year, while residential demand is predicted to be warmer than in previous years, leading to a forecast of weak coal prices in January [2][3]. Supply: High Then Low Expectations - The profitability of coal-to-methanol production has decreased but remains acceptable. Chemical plants typically do not undergo maintenance in winter, so coal-to-methanol production is expected to remain high. Additionally, domestic natural gas supply has increased, leading to a reduction in gas supply restrictions compared to previous years, with several gas-based plants expected to restart in January [3][15]. Import Situation: High Then Decreasing - Since late November, Iran's gas supply restrictions have been implemented, with about 90% of Iranian production capacity currently offline. However, due to inventory shipments, Iran's port loading volume was still significant in December, with 503,000 tons reported as of December 21. It is anticipated that some shipments will be delayed until January, but a decrease in loading volume is expected in the latter half of December, leading to a gradual decline in imports after mid-January [5][17]. Demand Side: Stable Then Strong Expectations - The profitability of MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) has been under pressure, with recent losses expanding as methanol prices rebound. The operational status of various plants is mixed, with some undergoing maintenance while others have recently restarted. Demand is expected to remain stable in the short term but may increase significantly after mid-January with the restart of Ningbo Fude [7][19]. Port Inventory: Accumulation Then Reduction Expectations - Due to the delays in unloading in early December, methanol port inventories have significantly decreased. However, with the increase in planned port arrivals to 1.15 million tons and improved unloading conditions, inventories are expected to return to an accumulation pattern. After mid-January, as imports decline and Ningbo Fude restarts, inventories are projected to gradually decrease [8][20]. Market Outlook - The combination of delayed unloading and increased planned arrivals has led to a return to an accumulation pattern for port inventories. The driving force for methanol price increases is weak, and there is a risk of short-term price corrections. In the medium to long term, a decrease in imports and the restart of Ningbo Fude are expected to lead to a gradual reduction in inventories, suggesting opportunities for low-cost buying of contracts [11][23].