方正富邦基金区德成：2026 年经济复苏斜率之下，利率中枢何去何从？

Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in 2025 showed a gradual decline in GDP across the first three quarters, with final consumption expenditure becoming the main driver of GDP growth, contributing increasingly to the overall economic performance [1][4] - Inflation indicators showed a low recovery in CPI, a steady rise in core CPI, and a V-shaped stabilization in PPI [1][4] - Investment trends indicated a strong start followed by a weakening phase, with manufacturing shifting towards "optimal capacity" and infrastructure investment experiencing a phase decline in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1][4] - Export dynamics displayed a pattern of high performance followed by volatility, with significant drag from exports to the US [1][4] - Overall, the economic landscape is characterized by a steady yet progressive optimization [1][4] Bond Market Insights - The interest rate bond market exhibited a trend of oscillating upward movement, with increased volatility and a steepening yield curve influenced by policy expectations, risk appetite shifts, and external environmental factors [2][5] - The credit bond market showed characteristics of low interest rates, low default rates, strong differentiation, and extended durations, with issuance reaching historical highs and credit spreads continuing to compress [2][5] - The market structure is transitioning from total expansion to structural optimization, with accelerated risk clearance and a rapid contraction in low-grade city investment bonds [2][5] 2026 Outlook - The certainty of growth and inflation in 2026 is expected to hinge on policy expansion, accelerated transition of old and new growth drivers, and the persistence of a low inflation environment [2][5] - Key variables affecting the outlook include changes in the external trade environment, the slope of domestic demand recovery, and shifts in resident income expectations, as well as the pace of industrial product price recovery [2][5] - There remains potential for further monetary easing, with a higher probability of a downward shift in short-term interest rate centers [2][5] - Long-term interest rates may be influenced by the slope of macroeconomic recovery and the extent of inflation rebound, with expectations of continued decline in long-term government bond yields if economic recovery is slow and inflation remains subdued [2][5] - If fiscal stimulus leads to a rebound in nominal GDP and rising inflation expectations, the interest rate center is likely to rise compared to 2025 [2][5] - Credit risk is anticipated to remain manageable with low default pressure, and the value and resilience of credit bonds are expected to be stable, although macroeconomic changes and supply-demand factors may impact the potential for credit spread expansion [2][6]