新能源渗透率已经60%，到底是谁还在买燃油车？

Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China is projected to reach nearly 60% by November 2025, indicating a significant shift towards electric vehicles in the market [1][14] - Despite the growing popularity of electric vehicles, there remains a segment of consumers who prefer traditional fuel vehicles due to concerns about reliability and safety [2][9] - The rapid development of charging infrastructure is expected to alleviate many of the current concerns associated with electric vehicle usage, such as charging anxiety and convenience [4][10] Charging Infrastructure - As of the end of 2024, China has a total of 12.818 million charging facilities, with a year-on-year growth of 49.1% [4][6] - The coverage rate of charging facilities in highway service areas has reached 98%, indicating a robust infrastructure for electric vehicle charging [9][10] - The government plans to build over 10,000 new charging stations in highway service areas by 2026, further enhancing the charging network [9][10] Consumer Behavior - Some consumers, like Ding Xiaoyong, express a strong preference for fuel vehicles due to a perceived reliability of traditional technology over electric systems [2][9] - "Scenario anxiety" is prevalent among consumers who fear potential inconveniences of electric vehicles, despite the majority of their driving scenarios being well-suited for electric vehicle use [4][9] - Younger consumers, such as Chen Hanyu, appreciate the mechanical feel and emotional connection associated with traditional vehicles, viewing them as more than just transportation [6][9] Economic Considerations - The total cost of ownership for electric vehicles is projected to be lower than that of fuel vehicles over a five-year period, with significant savings on energy and maintenance costs [12][17] - The manufacturing costs of electric vehicles are expected to equal those of fuel vehicles between 2025 and 2027, removing a key barrier to entry for consumers [17][20] - The lifecycle costs of electric vehicles, including energy and maintenance, present a compelling case for their adoption over traditional fuel vehicles [12][17] Future Trends - The market is approaching a tipping point where the penetration of electric vehicles will surpass 60%, marking a transition from early adopters to mainstream acceptance [14][20] - The technological advancements in electric vehicles, such as solid-state batteries and OTA updates, are expected to enhance their appeal and performance significantly [14][17] - Fuel vehicles are likely to retreat to niche markets, primarily for specialized applications or as luxury items, as electric vehicles dominate the consumer market [18][20]