铅周度总结：供应刚性与需求弹性共振 跨年行情将延续涨势？

Core Viewpoint - The lead price in the Changjiang spot market has shown a healthy upward trend, closing at 17,350 CNY/ton, marking a cumulative increase of 400 CNY/ton over the week, with an average price of 17,190 CNY/ton, up 80 CNY from the previous week, driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental support [4][5]. Macroeconomic Factors - The strong rise in lead prices is attributed to four macroeconomic drivers: 1. Strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like metals [5]. 2. Significant appreciation of the RMB, lowering import costs for raw materials and enhancing domestic investors' preference for RMB-denominated assets [5]. 3. Continuous supportive policies from the government, including signals of monetary easing and initiatives to boost consumption, which have bolstered confidence in economic recovery and industrial demand [5]. 4. Improvement in initial jobless claims data in the U.S., alleviating concerns about a deep global economic recession and increasing risk appetite [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lead market is currently in a "weak balance" state, characterized by rigid supply and elastic demand: - Supply constraints are due to structural shortages in lead concentrate and challenges in recycling during winter, leading to insufficient supply elasticity and low social inventory, which supports prices [6]. - Demand shows a mixed picture, with traditional sectors like electric bicycles and automotive batteries remaining stable, while new energy vehicles pose long-term replacement pressure on lead-acid batteries. Emerging sectors like energy storage are expected to provide incremental space but have not yet significantly impacted the overall demand [6]. - The industry's profit is shifting towards upstream mining, while midstream and downstream sectors face challenges balancing cost pressures and end prices [6]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the market will navigate through the interplay of policy, liquidity, and reality: - The focus will be on the Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting minutes to validate the interest rate cut path for 2026, with any dovish signals likely to reinforce the narrative of a weak dollar and ample liquidity [7]. - Domestic policies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" are expected to drive growth, with a dual focus on "new productive forces" and expanding domestic demand, serving as key engines for the market [7]. - The lead market is anticipated to remain in a typical "weak balance" state, with supply constraints and low social inventory supporting price floors, while demand lacks explosive drivers. The lead price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,500 to 17,900 CNY/ton, exhibiting characteristics of "top and bottom" [7]. Investment Strategy - For investors, this period represents a critical window for positioning in 2026: - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on offensive investments in sectors aligned with "new productive forces" such as AI and commercial aerospace, while defensive allocations should include high-dividend blue-chip stocks to mitigate volatility [8]. - The trading logic is shifting from mere expectation-based speculation to a deeper validation of policy effectiveness and fundamental data, emphasizing the need for sensitivity to reality while embracing trends to seize opportunities in the year-end market [8].