“连涨12日”到“持稳调整”，钨粉价格进入“高位整理期”

Core Viewpoint - Tungsten powder prices have stabilized after a 12-day increase, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics driven by short-term demand fluctuations and long-term value support [1] Demand Side - The recent price increase was primarily driven by downstream inventory replenishment, but this phase has ended, leading to a rational purchasing approach and reduced short-term demand [1] - The hard alloy sector, which accounts for over 60% of tungsten powder consumption, has seen a slowdown in procurement as firms complete year-end stocking, with a 3% drop in operating rates noted in late December [2] - In the photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors, while demand remains steady, significant incremental demand has not yet materialized, with a projected 60% increase in photovoltaic tungsten wire demand by 2025 [3] Supply Side - Despite short-term demand slowing, tungsten powder prices remain stable due to a "tight balance" in the supply side, characterized by limited raw material availability and price stabilization from leading companies [5] - Domestic tungsten mining quotas have tightened, with a 6.45% year-on-year reduction in the first batch for 2025, leading to increased raw material costs and a reluctance among companies to sell at lower prices [6] - Leading companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten have made strategic acquisitions and expansions, enhancing supply security and supporting price stability [7][8] Inventory and Market Sentiment - Industry inventory levels are low, which prevents significant price drops, creating a stable pricing environment characterized by tight supply and low inventory [9] - Year-end financial pressures and the withdrawal of speculative funds have contributed to the stabilization of tungsten powder prices, with traders opting to lock in profits [10] Market Outlook - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain within the range of 1.1 million to 1.12 million yuan per ton, influenced by year-end financial pressures and cautious market sentiment [11] - Long-term prospects remain positive, with high-end demand expected to grow, driven by sectors such as photovoltaic, semiconductor, and electric vehicles, alongside a tightening supply environment [12]