DCP 三期研究未达预期 德银重申神经分泌生物科学(NBIX.US)“持有”评级

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank reiterated its "Hold" rating on Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX.US) and maintained a target price of $152, believing that investor expectations for the clinical results were low, thus the impact on the stock price will be minimal [1] Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - Neurocrine Biosciences reported that the Phase III KINECT-DCP trial for valbenazine (Ingrezza) in treating Dystonic Cerebral Palsy (DCP) failed, eliminating the opportunity for Ingrezza to expand its indications beyond tardive dyskinesia (TD) and Huntington's disease (HD) [1] - The failure of the DCP indication for Ingrezza was not included in Deutsche Bank's valuation model, meaning it will not alter the company's valuation [1] Group 2: Sales Estimates and Market Focus - Deutsche Bank estimates the peak sales for Ingrezza to be approximately $2.821 billion, compared to consensus expectations of about $2.998 billion, which includes around $2.585 billion from TD sales and approximately $236 million from HD sales [2] - In the absence of label expansion, Deutsche Bank expects management to focus on increasing Ingrezza prescriptions, supported by an expanded sales team, while the TD market is anticipated to grow despite currently low penetration [2]