RadexMarkets 瑞德克斯:2026年以太坊新高或为多头陷阱

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant divergence in opinions regarding Ethereum's (ETH) ability to break through its bottleneck by 2026. While some investors remain optimistic about its long-term value, mainstream analysis generally adopts a cautious stance [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's current weakness is identified as the primary obstacle for Ethereum. As Bitcoin is viewed as a market barometer, its continued bearish trend makes it difficult for Ethereum to establish an independent market trajectory [3]. - Analyst Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin may fall to the $60,000 range by the third quarter of 2026, which adds to the pressure on Ethereum [3]. Price Recovery Challenges - For Ethereum to return to its historical peak of $4,878, it would need to achieve over a 40% increase from its current level of approximately $2,898, a challenging feat in a tightening liquidity environment [3][4]. Market Structure Evolution - The "refinement" process in the altcoin market is accelerating, with Ethereum showing more resilience than other tokens. However, without a broader bull market effect, the sustainability of price increases for individual cryptocurrencies is questionable [2][4]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - RadexMarkets advises investors to remain calm in the face of potential rebounds. Although there is a possibility of returning to previous highs in the short term, each price increase should be viewed as a critical window for risk management until macro fundamentals improve [4].