硅业分会：工业硅供需双弱库存累积 市场震荡延续

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations constrained by cost support and weak demand [1][2]. Supply Side - Production remains stable across major production areas, particularly in Xinjiang, but price differentiation in the spot market has increased due to volatility in futures prices [2]. - Some manufacturers are either maintaining firm quotes, refraining from quoting, or selling below market average to improve cash flow, resulting in a low operating rate [2]. - The current low-price environment is suppressing production enthusiasm, with many existing capacities used for internal settlements or long-term sales [2]. - Overall, the supply side is supported by costs, but slow inventory depletion and reduced downstream production are leading to inventory accumulation in some regions [2]. Demand Side - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly organic silicon and polysilicon industries, is weak, leading to reduced procurement of industrial silicon [2]. - The photovoltaic industry is generally experiencing losses, further suppressing industrial silicon consumption [2]. - Although the aluminum alloy market saw a slight increase in futures prices (from 21,110 CNY/ton to 21,480 CNY/ton), it has limited impact on driving demand for industrial silicon [2]. Price Trends - The comprehensive price of industrial silicon in China as of December 24 is 9,245 CNY/ton, down 5 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][3]. - Specific prices include 5 at 8,713 CNY/ton (down 94 CNY/ton) and 4 at 9,169 CNY/ton (up 51 CNY/ton) [1][3]. - Regional prices vary, with Xinjiang at 8,810 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10,005 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 10,050 CNY/ton [1][3]. Market Outlook - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue its range-bound fluctuations in the short term, with future trends dependent on the recovery pace of downstream demand and the progress of inventory depletion [2].