原油：地缘影响阶段性反弹

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment is neutral to bearish, with absolute prices strengthening this week, while the refined oil crack spread has significantly declined. Spot discounts and monthly spreads have strengthened simultaneously, continuing to trade on the European refinery restart, with some geopolitical premiums affecting absolute prices [1]. Geopolitical and Sanctions - Concerns over supply disruptions from Venezuela continue to be a major driver, with current exports around 800,000 barrels per day, primarily to China. The sentiment impact is more pronounced on domestic heavy crude components, and the Mars-WTI price spread has strengthened, reflecting concerns over heavy oil shortages. Some export destinations have shifted to "other," indicating a tendency for cargoes to be rerouted due to sanctions [1][9]. Macro Environment - Trading activity in Europe and the U.S. is expected to be subdued during the Christmas period, with potential for some positioning activity post-holiday. There is a slight recovery in risk appetite observed [3]. Downstream Demand - High profit margins have led to a significant return of European refineries, boosting the performance of the spot market. The U.S. refinery utilization rate has increased to 94.8% as of December 12, while China's main and local refinery utilization rates are at 79.1% and 56.22%, respectively [6][24]. Supply and Demand Balance - The OPEC production is projected to remain stable, with no unexpected increases. The overall production and export levels have not shown significant impact from geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela [2][10]. Refinery Trends - European refineries are experiencing a structural clearing trend, with a notable reduction in capacity due to various factors, including profitability issues and rising operational costs. Since 2000, European refining capacity has decreased by over 15%, with 34 refineries closed [14][15][20]. Price Dynamics - The crack spreads for gasoline have decreased, while the diesel market shows signs of easing tensions. The WTI and Brent futures have seen a reduction in net long positions, indicating a shift in market sentiment [31][44][47].