刘煜辉今天展望2026：期待中国版的马歇尔计划，哑铃策略押注国运、押注成长

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the potential for gold prices to surge due to a crisis of trust in the US dollar and treasury system, with predictions of gold reaching nearly $2000 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a significant shift in global capital dynamics [1][11][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The investment strategy for 2026 is suggested to be based on a "dumbbell strategy," focusing on dividend stocks on one end and investments that bet on national fortunes and growth on the other [6][83][84]. - Specific investment directions include AI edge applications, gold and non-ferrous metals, and opportunities in energy and technology sectors, particularly in response to US-China competition [7][85][68]. Group 2: Economic Context and Market Dynamics - The current economic landscape is characterized by a G2 competition narrative, with the US heavily investing in AI as a means to secure its economic future, which has led to a significant increase in the market capitalization of AI-related companies [13][14][96]. - The US AI sector faces challenges in forming a complete economic loop, as it lacks a robust manufacturing base to support the backend of AI applications, which may hinder its long-term success [3][120][121]. Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - There is a potential scenario where a collapse of the dollar could trigger an unprecedented rise in gold prices, with the possibility of a significant economic shift favoring China as it implements large-scale domestic policies akin to the Marshall Plan [4][82][114][115]. - The discussion emphasizes that the future of AI and its economic implications may ultimately rest with China, which possesses the necessary manufacturing capabilities and ecosystem to create a complete economic loop [38][122][128].