Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-26 12:24Group 1: Domestic Demand and Market Outlook - The home appliance sector is expected to show a "high first half and stable second half" trend in 2025, driven by policy continuation and consumption peaks [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, air conditioner shipments increased by 8.4%, refrigerators by 2.4%, and washing machines by 4.1% year-on-year [1][13] - For 2026, the continuation of subsidies is anticipated to mitigate the impact of high base effects and demand pull-forward, with projected declines in overall appliance sales of -4% to -7.3% under various subsidy scenarios [1][16][19] Group 2: Export Performance and Global Market Trends - Home appliance exports have slowed down due to tariff policies and global supply chain adjustments, but still show resilience and structural highlights [2] - In 2025, the export growth rate for air conditioners is expected to be weaker than that of washing machines and refrigerators, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting overseas demand [2][39] - The U.S. market is projected to benefit from a rate cut, which may enhance demand for home appliances, while the European market is expected to maintain a slow recovery [42][44][50] Group 3: Investment Themes - The narrative in the black appliance sector is shifting from "market share chasing" to "profit and pricing power," with Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL expected to convert market share into higher profits [3][55] - White appliances are seen as having strong growth potential due to their historical resilience through cycles, with leading brands like Midea and Haier expected to maintain stable growth and generous dividends [3][83] - The global competition in new consumer products, particularly in smart imaging and robotic vacuum cleaners, is expected to favor Chinese brands, highlighting their competitive advantages [3] Group 4: Financial Metrics and Valuation - As of December 22, 2025, the home appliance sector's PE TTM is 16.27 times, remaining below the 10-year average of 32.8% [7] - The white appliance segment's current PE is 11.22, while black appliances stand at 25.94, indicating varying levels of market valuation [9] - The home appliance sector has seen a decline in public fund holdings, with a heavy allocation of only 2.46% in Q3 2025, reflecting concerns over demand in 2026 [9]