Core Viewpoint - The report suggests a defensive strategy in October followed by an offensive approach in November for the media and internet sectors, maintaining a positive outlook for the industry through 2025 [1]. Market Performance - In October, external factors impacted the market, leading to increased risk aversion in the ChiNext/TMT sectors, with notable adjustments in previously high-valued stocks like the gaming sector and Alibaba [2][18]. - The Media Index (CITIC) fell nearly 10% from a high of 3659.98 between September 25 and October 14, while the Gaming Index dropped approximately 14% from a high of 2259.37 in the same period [2][18]. - Alibaba's stock decreased by nearly 17% from a high of 186.2 CNY between October 3 and October 14 [2][18]. Company Performance - Despite the market adjustments, the fundamentals of key sectors and companies remain strong, with recommendations to buy on dips, particularly for Alibaba and Tencent [2][18]. - Alibaba's cloud business is expected to support valuation increases, with a revenue growth rate of 29% and an EBITA margin of 9.5%, showing consistent growth [2][18]. - Tencent's new game "Delta Action" is anticipated to exceed market expectations, contributing to double-digit growth in Q3 2024, while its video platform continues to grow rapidly [2][18]. Gaming Sector Outlook - The gaming sector is projected to experience significant growth, with estimates suggesting a 10.8% CAGR leading to a PE ratio of 26 by 2026 [3][19]. - High-growth stocks in the gaming sector include ST Huaton and Giant Network, with expectations for continued strong performance [3][19]. AI and New Themes - The report highlights potential opportunities in AI applications, short interactive dramas, group broadcasts, and consumer trends in China, suggesting a focus on strong fundamentals in these areas [3][19]. Alibaba's Financial Projections - For FY26Q2, Alibaba's Chinese e-commerce revenue is projected at 126.9 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.6% year-over-year increase, while cloud revenue is expected to reach 38.2 billion CNY, growing 29% year-over-year [20][22]. - The overall revenue for Alibaba is forecasted to be 252.9 billion CNY, a 7.9% increase from the previous year [22]. Profitability Metrics - Alibaba's EBITA for its Chinese e-commerce segment is expected to drop significantly by 80.6% to 8.6 billion CNY due to increased investments in instant retail [20][22]. - The cloud segment's EBITA is projected to grow by 36.4% to 3.6 billion CNY, indicating strong profitability in this area [22].
【报告】传媒互联网行业四季度策略报告:10月防守,11月进攻(附下载)
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-26 12:23