QuantumScape stock price forecast for 2026: Will QS rise or fall?

Core Insights - QuantumScape stock has experienced a significant decline of approximately 40% from its year-to-date high of $19, currently trading at $11.20, yet it remains up 115% for the year, with a market capitalization exceeding $6.7 billion [1][2] Company Developments - The stock price surged earlier this year due to the announcement of a new manufacturing approach for solid-state batteries, utilizing a high-throughput, continuous-flow separator technology called Cobra [1][2] - A joint development agreement with a global top-ten company and a previous deal with a major manufacturer have contributed to positive market sentiment [2] - QuantumScape has conducted demonstrations with Volkswagen, showcasing its battery technology on the Ducati V21L, and has secured a significant deal with Corning [3] Financial Performance - The company's operational loss improved to $114.9 million in Q3 from $130 million year-over-year, while the total net loss decreased from $119 million to $105 million, with billings of $12 million [4] - Analysts predict continued narrowing of losses, with the average estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) moving from 22 cents in 2024 to 17 cents, leading to an annual loss per share reduction from 89 cents to 72 cents, and further down to 66 cents next year [6][5] Market Challenges - The short interest in QuantumScape has risen to 10%, indicating increased bearish sentiment among investors [7] - Concerns are growing within the electric vehicle (EV) industry, as major automakers, including Volkswagen, are shifting focus back to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, which may impact QuantumScape's core business [7][8] - The company's outstanding shares have increased significantly to 558 million from 233 million in 2021, which may affect future stock performance [8] Technical Analysis - The stock has shown a downward trend, dropping from a high of $19 to $11.18, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level [12] - It has fallen below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), with a potential bearish signal indicated by the crossing of these averages [12] - The next key target for the stock price is projected to be the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at $9.40 [13]