AI story is no longer an equity story, says Apollo Global's Torsten Slok

Economic Outlook - The economy is showing signs of improvement, with several positive factors contributing to growth expectations [1][2] - Key tailwinds include the implementation of a significant bill that allows for immediate expensing of capital expenditures, lower oil prices, a declining dollar, and the diminishing impact of the trade war [2][4] Consumer and Corporate Impact - The new bill enables companies to write down 100% of their capital expenditures immediately, which is a departure from the usual multi-year write-off process [3] - Consumers are expected to benefit from larger tax refunds in 2026, projected to be 50% greater than those in 2025, further supporting economic growth [4] Market Dynamics - The current market valuation may not fully reflect the positive economic outlook for 2026, as growth is heavily concentrated in a few large AI-related stocks, which constitute 40% of the index [6] - The AI narrative is influencing not only equity markets but also the public investment-grade credit market, which is increasingly dominated by hyperscaler issuances [7] Risks and Concentration - While growth prospects are favorable, there is a risk that if the AI sector underperforms in 2026, it could negatively impact both equity and credit markets despite overall economic growth [8]