第三方支付“进与退”｜回顾展望

Industry Overview - The payment industry is entering a long-term licensing era by 2025, with a focus on its financial infrastructure attributes, shifting regulatory emphasis from cyclical reviews to institutionalized governance [1] - The domestic third-party payment industry has reached a peak in overall growth, with both transaction scale and user frequency entering a plateau phase, leading to a shift from incremental expansion to stock competition [1] - The number of payment licenses is expected to decline slowly in 2026, with smaller payment institutions lacking sustainable operational capabilities likely to exit the market [1] License Cancellation - As of December 26, 2023, the central bank has disclosed the cancellation of 11 payment licenses this year, totaling 107 licenses since the first issuance in May 2011, leaving 164 licensed payment institutions [2] - The cancellation trend has been consistent, with annual license cancellations varying from 1 to 23 over the past years [2] Structural Adjustments - The pressure to reduce the number of payment institutions may extend to bank card acquiring licenses, with many institutions lacking technical or merchant service capabilities facing limited survival space [3] - The focus of market clearing pressure is primarily on prepaid card institutions, which are experiencing a contraction in application scenarios and facing rising compliance and operational costs [3] Internet Platforms Acquiring Licenses - Internet platforms are increasingly acquiring payment licenses as they view them as essential infrastructure for building commercial ecosystems, reducing payment channel costs, and enhancing user data for future financial services [4][7] - Companies like Xiaohongshu, Tongcheng Group, and 58.com have recently acquired payment licenses to strengthen their market positions [6] Cross-Border Payment Opportunities - Cross-border payments are becoming a new focal point for growth in the domestic third-party payment market, with various players obtaining payment licenses in China [8] - Companies like Payoneer and PingPong have successfully acquired overseas licenses, indicating a trend towards international expansion [9][10] - The cross-border payment sector is expected to be a significant growth engine for many payment institutions, with substantial increases in transaction volumes reported [9][10] Future Directions - By 2026, the focus on international expansion will continue, but companies will need to adjust their strategies to include local compliance and partnerships with local wallets or banks [11] - Smaller institutions are encouraged to focus on niche markets such as cross-border education payments and overseas remittances rather than broad expansion [11]