ZACKS·2025-12-26 17:26Core Insights - Sea Limited (SE) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) are significant players in the global gaming industry, with differing scales and focuses [1] - The mobile gaming market is projected to reach $256.2 billion by 2030, growing at a 10.2% CAGR, providing a long-term growth opportunity for both companies [2] Sea Limited (SE) - Garena, Sea Limited's gaming division, has shown a rebound in Q3 2025, with bookings increasing by 51% year over year to $840.7 million and adjusted EBITDA rising by 48% [5] - Despite recent performance, Garena's growth is heavily reliant on the Free Fire franchise, which poses risks if player engagement declines [3][6] - The company's costs have increased significantly, with revenue costs rising nearly 44% year over year due to higher royalty and platform fees, raising concerns about margin stability [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SE's Q1 2026 earnings is $1.24 per share, reflecting an 8.1% decrease over the past 30 days, while the full-year estimate has been revised down to $5.64 per share, indicating a 3.3% decline [7][8] Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) - Take-Two reported record net bookings of $1.96 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, a 33% increase year over year, and raised its full-year net bookings outlook to $6.4-$6.5 billion [10] - The company benefits from a strong portfolio of franchises, including Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K, with recurrent consumer spending rising by 20% and accounting for approximately 73% of bookings [10][11] - The future pipeline includes major titles like Grand Theft Auto VI, which is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTWO's fiscal Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings remains stable at 83 cents and 41 cents, respectively, with a strong track record of exceeding earnings expectations [13][14] Stock Performance Comparison - Over the past six months, Sea Limited shares have declined by 20.7%, while Take-Two Interactive shares have increased by 4.2%, indicating a divergence in market performance [14] - Sea Limited's stock is trading below the 50-day moving average, suggesting limited near-term upside, whereas Take-Two's shares are above this average, indicating a bullish trend [17][21] Conclusion - Sea Limited's growth is constrained by its reliance on Free Fire and rising costs, while Take-Two Interactive's diversified portfolio and strong recurrent spending position it as a superior long-term growth stock [23]