PGY vs. TREE: Which Fintech Is Poised Better for Sustainable Profits?

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape between Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) and LendingTree, Inc. (TREE) in the fintech sector, particularly focusing on their differing business models and risk profiles [1][3]. Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) - PGY leverages AI and machine learning to optimize credit underwriting and diversify funding sources, expanding from personal loans to auto lending and point-of-sale financing [2][4]. - The company has established a network of over 135 institutional partners and utilizes forward flow agreements to ensure funding stability, especially during market disruptions [5]. - In 2025, PGY achieved three consecutive quarters of positive GAAP net income, marking a turnaround from previous losses, with a year-over-year network volume growth of 10.5% [6]. - PGY's proprietary technology allows lenders to present pre-approved offers to customers, enhancing credit access with minimal marketing costs [7]. - The company operates with minimal on-balance-sheet exposure, acquiring loans through asset-backed securities (ABS) or forward flow agreements, which limits credit and market risks [8]. LendingTree, Inc. (TREE) - TREE operates as an online marketplace connecting consumers with financial service providers, evolving its strategy to diversify into non-mortgage products [9][10]. - The company has expanded its offerings to include credit cards and various loan types, with a focus on enhancing cross-selling opportunities [11][13]. - In the third quarter of 2025, TREE's adjusted EBITDA increased by 48% year-over-year, driven by strong revenue growth across all business segments [14]. - TREE's revenue projections for 2025 are between $1.08 billion and $1.09 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 20.5% [22]. Comparative Analysis - Over the past six months, PGY shares increased by 6.3%, while TREE shares surged by 46.5%, indicating stronger investor sentiment towards TREE [15]. - PGY's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 3.40X, lower than TREE's 5.59X, suggesting PGY is currently undervalued [16]. - PGY's return on equity (ROE) stands at 44.45%, compared to TREE's 59.04%, indicating TREE's more efficient use of shareholder funds [18]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects PGY's revenues for 2025 and 2026 to grow by 28.4% and 19.2%, respectively, while TREE's growth rates are 20.5% and 5.7% [22][24]. Investment Outlook - PGY is characterized as a profitable fintech leader with strong revenue growth, a resilient business model, and a capital-efficient funding strategy [26]. - TREE is noted for its established marketplace model and superior ROE, with ongoing efforts to diversify its product offerings supporting revenue growth [27]. - While TREE has operational maturity, PGY presents a stronger revenue and earnings growth outlook, along with better valuation metrics [28][29].