ZACKS·2025-12-26 18:46Core Insights - The cruise sector is transitioning from survival to execution, with strong travel demand and full ships, but financial health and growth strategies are now critical for distinguishing between successful and struggling companies [1] Carnival Corporation (CCL) - Carnival is focused on improving its financial position and converting demand into consistent free cash flow, having reduced debt by over $10 billion and achieved an investment-grade leverage profile by the end of 2025 [2][4] - In 2025, Carnival reported record revenues, yields, operating income, and EBITDA, with net income exceeding $3 billion, a 60% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand and higher ticket pricing rather than aggressive discounting [2][3] - For 2026, Carnival is about two-thirds booked at historically high prices, expecting continued yield growth supported by disciplined revenue management and unique private destinations [3] - Despite improvements, Carnival faces challenges with rising unit costs due to inflation and increased marketing spend, which may pressure margins [4] Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) - Royal Caribbean is entering 2026 with strong demand and pricing momentum, with record bookings and high load factors, indicating reliance on premium offerings rather than discounts [5][6] - The company is expanding its private destination portfolio significantly, which supports yield growth and onboard spending, enhancing its competitive edge [7] - RCL maintains financial discipline with moderate capacity and yield growth, ending the quarter with leverage below 3x and nearly $7 billion in liquidity, allowing for capital returns and growth funding [8] - The company anticipates strong profit growth in 2026, with earnings likely starting with a "$17 handle" [8] Financial Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival's 2026 sales and EPS indicates year-over-year increases of 4.1% and 9.3%, respectively, with recent upward revisions in earnings estimates [10] - For Royal Caribbean, the 2026 sales and EPS estimates imply growth of 9.4% and 14.5%, respectively, with stable earnings estimates over the past month [12] - Year-to-date, Royal Caribbean's stock has risen 27.2%, outperforming the industry's 7.3% growth, while Carnival's shares have increased by 25.4% [13] - RCL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16.45, while CCL's forward earnings multiple is 12.95, indicating differing valuations [15] Conclusion - Overall, Royal Caribbean appears to have a slight advantage over Carnival as the industry shifts from recovery to execution, with stronger pricing power and margin support due to its newer ships and premium offerings [17][19]