3 Small AI Plays to Buy for 2026

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is ending 2026 positively, with the S&P 500 Index expected to finish the year with a 17% return, driven by strong performance from major technology companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon [1]. Technology Sector Performance - Big technology stocks have significantly outperformed the broader U.S. market in 2025, with the Nasdaq-100 Index up 19.6% year to date and the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector up 27% [2]. - Concerns are rising over high valuations in the information technology sector, which has a forward P/E ratio of 26.6, one of the highest among S&P 500 sectors [2]. Valuation Concerns - The Nasdaq-100 is trading at a high valuation, with a P/E ratio of approximately 34.15, significantly above its typical range over the past five years [3]. - AI capital expenditures (capex) are a major driver of rising technology-sector premiums, with hyperscalers spending $106 billion in Q3, a 75% increase year over year [4]. Future Investment Opportunities - Investors are shifting focus to smaller-cap AI stocks as concerns about overvaluation of larger tech stocks grow [6]. - Smaller AI companies, particularly those under $50 billion in market cap, are seen as having potential for significant growth, with the ability to scale from $10 billion to $100 billion [7]. Notable Smaller AI Stocks - Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) has seen AI-driven revenue increase to 55% of its business, up from 35% last year, and is recognized for its strong position in cloud and AI networking services [9]. - Innodata (NASDAQ:INOD) is profitable and debt-free, providing essential data services for AI models, and has secured contracts with major tech firms [10][11]. - Recursion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:RXRX) utilizes AI to expedite drug candidate identification, showcasing innovative applications in biotech [12]. Market Dynamics - Smaller AI stocks offer "pure play" exposure to AI, unlike larger tech firms where AI exposure is diluted by legacy businesses [13]. - The potential for high returns comes with significant risks, as smaller stocks can experience extreme volatility and substantial value loss during market corrections [14].