2026年锚定三大配置主线

Core Insights - New quality productivity, driven by technological breakthroughs and aimed at enhancing total factor productivity, is fundamentally reshaping the underlying logic of A-share market segmentation [1][2] - Analysts believe that under the resonance of policy dividends, technological breakthroughs, and market demand, sectors related to new quality productivity are performing well, with core technology areas becoming the focus of capital allocation [1][3] Restructuring A-share Market Segmentation - New quality productivity is characterized by revolutionary technological breakthroughs, innovative allocation of production factors, and deep industrial transformation, optimizing labor, materials, and their combinations to enhance total factor productivity [1][2] - The core features of new quality productivity include alignment with strategic emerging industries, a minimum of 5% R&D investment relative to revenue, a minimum of 10% R&D personnel ratio, and a compound annual revenue growth rate of 20% over the past three years [1][2] Investment Paradigm Shift - The segmentation of new quality productivity is based on "technological barriers + growth potential + policy alignment," contrasting with traditional productivity, which focuses on "resource endowment + production capacity + cyclical attributes" [2][3] - This shift allows A-shares to transition from a stock-picking era to a track-selection era, emphasizing dynamic capture of technological innovations driving industrial changes [2][3] Performance of New Quality Productivity Sectors - By the end of 2025, the new quality productivity sector significantly outperformed the market, with the comprehensive index rising by 43.60%, surpassing the CSI 300 index [3][4] - Key sectors such as electric equipment and defense industries showed strong momentum, driven by policy, technology, and market factors [3][4] Policy and Technological Support - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, providing a stable policy outlook for the sector [4][5] - Significant technological advancements in areas like solid-state batteries and commercial aerospace are creating a positive feedback loop of market enthusiasm and capital allocation [5][6] Focus Areas for 2026 - Analysts identify three main investment directions for 2026: technology implementation, energy infrastructure, and manufacturing upgrades [6][7] - The AI sector is expected to transition from model competition to application implementation, with hardware showing strong potential due to solid fundamentals [6][7] - Energy infrastructure upgrades, particularly in smart grids and energy storage, are anticipated to provide significant opportunities as market-driven transformations take place [7][8] - The manufacturing sector is poised for growth through the localization of industrial software and the digital transformation of traditional industries, driven by technological empowerment [7][8]