像科学家一样思考丨书评

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of probability thinking in decision-making, particularly in investment and business contexts, as illustrated by Warren Buffett's quote about weighing potential losses against potential gains [1][3][4] - The author, Jeffrey Ma, advocates for a long-term perspective and the necessity of believing in one's strategies and models, suggesting that mathematical laws and strategies remain consistent over time despite a changing world [3][4] - The book promotes a quantitative analysis framework based on data logic, expected value calculations, and risk management to navigate uncertainty in the business world [3][4][5] Group 2 - A key principle highlighted is the identification and utilization of systematic and structural opportunities rather than focusing solely on the probability of individual events, aligning with Buffett's logic [4][5] - The author argues against the common practice of judging decisions based on outcomes, stressing that good decisions can lead to poor results and vice versa, which is a significant flaw in reasoning [4][5][6] - The text underscores the necessity for decision-makers to maintain a disciplined approach to their strategies, especially under pressure, and to rely on data-driven intuition rather than traditional instinct [5][6]