日本赌国运的迷梦，早该醒醒了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Japan's historical pattern of "strategic gambling" in its foreign policy, particularly under the leadership of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, highlighting the risks of reviving militarism and the potential consequences of such actions on Japan's national fate [1][2][4]. Historical Context - Japan has a history of three significant military adventures that were seen as gambles for national fortune, starting with the First Sino-Japanese War in 1894, where Japan won a large indemnity of 230 million taels of silver [2]. - The second gamble occurred during the Russo-Japanese War, where Japan's victory was exaggerated, leading to a rise in militarism and a dangerous obsession with gambling on national fate [3]. - The third major gamble was during World War II, culminating in the attack on Pearl Harbor, which ultimately led to Japan's economic collapse and defeat [3][4]. Current Political Climate - The current Japanese government is perceived as provoking neighboring countries like South Korea and Russia while pushing for military expansion and potential nuclear capabilities [1][6]. - There is a resurgence of right-wing politicians in Japan who are attempting to revive militarism, fueled by historical grievances and a sense of existential crisis due to Japan's geographical and resource limitations [6][7]. International Relations - The article emphasizes that the current international environment does not allow for risky gambles on national fate, as global consensus favors peace and development [12][13]. - Japan's attempts to leverage U.S.-China tensions for its own benefit are seen as misguided, as the U.S. will not support reckless actions by Japan that could jeopardize its own interests [16][15]. Military and Strategic Implications - Japan's right-wing factions are attempting to manipulate public sentiment and historical narratives to justify a return to militarism, which poses risks not only to Japan but also to regional stability [7][18]. - The article argues that China has significantly strengthened its military capabilities, diminishing the feasibility of Japan's militaristic ambitions and reinforcing the need for a stable international order [18][19].