国内库存充足 豆粕上下空间均有限

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight weekly increase, while export data from Brazil shows a decrease compared to last year, indicating mixed signals in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - As of December 26, 2025, the main soybean meal futures contract closed at 2790 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in open interest by 29,425 contracts [1]. - During the week of December 22-26, the soybean meal futures opened at 2735 CNY/ton, peaked at 2801 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 2719 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.97% [1]. Export Data - Brazil's SECEX reported that soybean meal exports from December 1 to 19 reached 1.655 million tons, down from 2.052 million tons during the same period last year [2]. - On December 25, the total soybean meal transaction volume in major oil mills across the country was 142,300 tons, a decrease of 42,200 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions at 41,800 tons [2]. Price Trends - On December 25, the spot prices for 43% soybean meal in East China showed stability with slight increases, including prices of 3020 CNY in Taizhou, 3030 CNY in Taixing, 3070 CNY in Zhoushan (up 10 CNY), 3090 CNY in Ningbo (up 10 CNY), and 3060 CNY in Wuhu [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the market remains cautious regarding China's purchasing pace, with recent USDA reports indicating net sales of 2.3962 million tons of U.S. soybeans, including 1.383 million tons to China [4]. - Zhengxin Futures noted that domestic soybean procurement for the near term is nearly complete, while long-term procurement is gradually advancing, with sufficient soybean and soybean meal inventories in the short term [4]. - The tightening of customs clearance policies is providing some support for soybean meal futures, but increased U.S. soybean purchases may eliminate future gaps, suggesting a continued bottoming trend in the medium to long term [4].